Forecast of socio-economic development of the Russian Federation for the medium term and updated forecast. Forecast of socio-economic development of the Russian Federation for the medium term and updated forecast Functions of the Ministry of Economic Development

Options for forecasting the country's socio-economic development.

Functions of the Ministry of Economic Development in developing the forecast.

Functions of executive authorities.

An updated forecast of the country's socio-economic development for the medium term.

Options for forecasting the country's socio-economic development.

The forecast is developed in several versions and is formed as a whole for the Russian Federation, for the constituent entities of Russia, and for types of economic activity.

The basic version of the forecast characterizes the main trends and parameters of economic development in the context of predicted changes in external and internal factors while maintaining the main trends in changes in the efficiency of resource use.

The target version of the forecast characterizes the parameters of the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation, the achievement of which ensures the implementation of the goals of the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation and the priorities of the Government's socio-economic policy based on the President's Address to the Federal Assembly, the Concept of long-term socio-economic development and the Main Directions of the Government's activities.

By decision of the Government Commission on Budget Projects for the next financial year and planning period, additional forecast options may be developed that reflect changes in the external and internal conditions of the development of the Russian Federation.

The Federal State Statistics Service, within a week after the Government approves the scenario conditions and main parameters of the forecast, ensures that the federal executive authorities and executive authorities of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation are provided with the necessary statistical information developed in accordance with the federal statistical work plan for the preparation of the forecast.

2. Functions of the Ministry of Economic Development in developing the forecast.

The Ministry of Economic Development, within a month after the Government of the Russian Federation approves the scenario conditions and main parameters of the forecast, includes in the forecast the following indicators and characteristics:

a) assessment of the achieved level of socio-economic development;

b) characteristics of the conditions of socio-economic development in the next financial year and planning period, including the main indicators of demographic and scientific and technical development, the state of the environment and natural resources;

c) the main indicators of the development of the world economy for the next financial year and planning period, including the forecast of world prices for individual raw materials;

d) assessment of factors and limitations of socio-economic development for the next financial year and planning period;

e) a list of tasks and target indicators that ensure the implementation of the target version of the forecast corresponding to the target values ​​of the indicators defined in the Main Directions of Activities of the Government of the Russian Federation;

f) main development indicators for certain types of economic activity, indicators for the development of transport and energy infrastructure for the next financial year and planning period;

g) the main directions of territorial development for the next financial year and planning period;

h) the balance of institutional sectors of the economy for the next financial year and planning period, reflecting the conditions for the financial balance of the parameters of economic development and economic sectors taken into account when developing the forecast, as well as indicators of the development of institutional sectors of the economy, taking into account the influence of government policy measures in the field of economic development;

i) other indicators according to the list agreed with the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation.

The forecast of socio-economic development for 2016 - 2018 characterizes the development of the Russian economy in the context of ongoing geopolitical instability, the continued application of economic sanctions to Russia by the EU and the USA and counter-sanctions throughout the entire forecast period. Restricted access to global capital markets for Russian companies and a fairly high level of net capital outflow from the private sector associated with the repayment of external debt have a negative impact on the recovery of investment activity.

The forecast for the socio-economic development of the Russian economy was developed on an option basis, consisting of a basic, target and conservative option.

In 2017, the economic situation will stabilize somewhat. In 2018, there will be a transition to positive dynamics (GDP growth at 2.3%), but this will not allow a return to the pre-crisis level.

The forecast of socio-economic development for 2016 - 2018 characterizes the development of the Russian economy in the context of ongoing geopolitical instability, the continued application of economic sanctions to Russia by the EU and the USA and counter-sanctions throughout the entire forecast period. Restricted access to global capital markets for Russian companies and a fairly high level of net capital outflow from the private sector associated with the repayment of external debt have a negative impact on the recovery of investment activity.

The forecast for the socio-economic development of the Russian economy was developed on an option basis, consisting of a basic, target and conservative option.

The developed options are based on a single hypothesis of global economic growth with an average annual rate in 2016 - 2018 at the level of 3.4 - 3.6 percent.

The basic option characterizes the main macroeconomic parameters of economic development in the context of maintaining conservative trends in changes in external factors and conservative budget policy, including in terms of the state’s social obligations.

The option is based on market expectations for the energy market, reflected in the consensus forecast of world agencies, and was developed based on the average annual price of Urals oil in 2016 of 50 US dollars per barrel, in 2017 - 52 US dollars per barrel, in 2018 - US$55 per barrel. In 2016, the cost of gas exported to non-CIS countries is expected to decrease relative to the 2015 level, including due to increased competition in European gas markets.

In the social sphere, the basic option provides for an increase in the standard of living of the population based on a moderate increase in the social obligations of the state and business. Consumer demand will, on the one hand, be limited by the restrained dynamics of household incomes, and on the other hand, will be supported by a gradual revival of consumer lending.

GDP growth in 2016 is projected at 0.7%; in the future, as investment and consumer demand recovers, economic growth rates will increase to 1.9% in 2017 and 2.4% in 2018.

The target option was developed in accordance with the instructions of the President of the Russian Federation and assumes that the Russian economy will enter a trajectory of sustainable growth at rates not lower than the world average, reducing inflation to 4% and increasing labor productivity by at least 5% while simultaneously ensuring macroeconomic balance.

The target scenario reflects the transition to a new model of economic growth. To achieve the target parameters, it will be necessary to carry out significant structural reforms of the federal budget expenditures, involving optimization and increasing the efficiency of budget expenditures, a radical revision of the state programs of the Russian Federation in order to comply with the guidelines and indicators of the target state of socio-economic development of the Russian Federation.

The implementation of the main measures provided for by the target development scenario will ensure an increase in the rate of economic growth by 1.5 - 2 percentage points compared to the base scenario in 2017 - 2018 and move to a sustainable dynamics of economic growth by 2020 with an average rate of 4. 5% per year, while ensuring an increase in labor productivity of at least 5% per year and achieving a target inflation rate of no higher than 4 percent. The main contribution to the increase in economic growth rates in 2016 - 2020 will be made by the following factors:

Increased investment in production expansion and production infrastructure;

Increased investment in increasing the export of non-commodity goods and stimulating the export of high-tech products;

Increased total factor productivity as a result of increased investment in innovative sectors of the economy;

Implementation of measures to save resources and reduce costs, including those related to labor costs and tariffs of natural monopolies;

Development of small businesses, improvement of conditions for entrepreneurial activity and other factors.

The conservative version of the forecast considers the development of the Russian economy in conditions of lower dynamics of prices for raw materials, primarily for oil and natural gas. It is expected that in 2016 - 2018. the average annual price of Urals oil decreases to 40 US dollars per barrel and stabilizes at this level throughout the forecast period.

Under these conditions, against the backdrop of the inertial trends that have developed over the past two years, in 2016 the main macroeconomic indicators will have sharply negative dynamics: the decline in GDP could be up to 1%, the investment recession will continue to deepen, the negative dynamics in industry and retail trade will intensify, and there will be a further decline in living standards population. To a lesser extent, the decline will affect oil and gas production, as well as agricultural production and food production, and to the greatest extent - the entire investment complex and the service sector. This scenario is characterized by an increased inflationary background: in 2016, inflation could reach 8 - 9 percent.

In 2017, the economic situation will stabilize somewhat. In 2018, there will be a transition to positive dynamics (GDP growth at 2.3%), but this will not allow a return to the pre-crisis level.

The basic version was used to develop the parameters of the federal budget for 2016.

Main indicators of the forecast of socio-economic development of the Russian Federation for 2015 - 2018

Main indicators of the forecast of socio-economic development of the Russian Federation for 2015 - 2018

Urals oil prices (world), USD/barrel.

Real disposable income of the population,%

1. The forecast of socio-economic development of the Russian Federation, a subject of the Russian Federation, a municipal entity is developed for a period of at least three years.

(see text in the previous edition)

2. The forecast of socio-economic development of the Russian Federation, a subject of the Russian Federation, a municipal entity is developed annually in the manner established, respectively, by the Government of the Russian Federation, the highest executive body of state power of the subject of the Russian Federation, and local administration.

A forecast of socio-economic development of an urban, rural settlement (intra-urban district) can be developed by the local administration of a municipal district (urban district with intra-city division) in accordance with an agreement between the local administration of an urban, rural settlement (intra-urban district) and the local administration of a municipal district (urban district with intracity division), except for the case established by this Code.

(see text in the previous edition)

3. The forecast of socio-economic development of the Russian Federation, a subject of the Russian Federation, a municipality is approved accordingly by the Government of the Russian Federation, the highest executive body of state power of the subject of the Russian Federation, the local administration simultaneously with the adoption of a decision to submit the draft budget to the legislative (representative) body.

4. The forecast of socio-economic development for the next financial year and planning period is developed by clarifying the parameters of the planning period and adding parameters for the second year of the planning period.

The explanatory note to the socio-economic development forecast provides justification for the forecast parameters, including their comparison with previously approved parameters, indicating the reasons and factors for the predicted changes.

5. A change in the forecast for the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation, a constituent entity of the Russian Federation, or a municipal entity during the preparation or consideration of a draft budget entails a change in the main characteristics of the draft budget.

6. Development of a forecast of socio-economic development of the Russian Federation, a constituent entity of the Russian Federation, a municipal district, a city district, an urban district with an intracity division, an urban, rural settlement, an intracity district is carried out by the appropriately authorized Government of the Russian Federation, the highest executive body of state power of the constituent entity of the Russian Federation, local administration, federal executive body, executive body of a constituent entity of the Russian Federation, body (official) of local administration.

(see text in the previous edition)

Simultaneously with the forecast of socio-economic development of the Russian Federation, the federal executive body authorized by the Government of the Russian Federation is developing the main directions of customs tariff regulation.

7. In order to form a budget forecast for the Russian Federation, a subject of the Russian Federation, a municipal entity for the long term, in accordance with Article 170.1 of this Code, a forecast of the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation, a subject of the Russian Federation, a municipal entity for a long-term period is developed in the manner established accordingly by the Government of the Russian Federation, the highest executive body of state power of a constituent entity of the Russian Federation, local administration.

A long-term forecast for the socio-economic development of an urban or rural settlement (intra-urban district) can be developed by the local administration of a municipal district (urban district with intra-urban division) in accordance with an agreement between the local administration of an urban, rural settlement (intra-urban district) and the local administration of the municipal district ( urban district with intra-city division), except for the case established by the second paragraph of paragraph 1 of Article 154 of this Code.

(see text in the previous edition)

Appendix No. 5

MINISTRY OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION

to the development of indicators for forecasting socio-economic development of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation

Moscow , 200 9 year

Contents........................................................ ........................................................ ........................... 2

INTRODUCTION

The economy of each of the 83 constituent entities of the Russian Federation is an integral part of the economy of the entire economic complex of Russia with a certain specialization associated with the presence on their territory of natural resources and climatic conditions, accumulated production, qualification and scientific potential, and regional characteristics of the manifestation of the consequences of the global financial crisis.

The effectiveness of decisions made at the federal level will largely depend on the extent to which these decisions are implemented in the regions. In this regard, the importance of regional development forecasts for the constituent entities of the Russian Federation is increasing, taking into account both the influence of federal socio-economic policy (anti-crisis, tax, budget, tariff, structural-investment, foreign economic, social, institutional transformations, etc.) and regional characteristics on social -economic development of the relevant territories. A feature of the forecast for 2010, 2011, 2012. is to assess the regional consequences of the global financial crisis and develop anti-crisis measures as part of regional economic policy.

The general procedure for developing forecasts for the Russian Federation and constituent entities of the Russian Federation is determined by the Federal Law “On State Forecasting and Programs for Social and Economic Development of the Russian Federation” dated June 23, 1995.

Forecasts for the socio-economic development of Russia and the regions are developed annually in accordance with the accepted instructions of the Government of the Russian Federation and in accordance with the scheme agreed with it for the procedure for developing a forecast for the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation, which determines the procedure and main stages of developing forecast documents, and the composition of participants in this work. The organization of work on the formation of forecasts at all levels is entrusted to the Ministry of Economic Development of Russia.

1. GENERAL PROVISIONS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FORECASTS OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF THE SUBJECTS OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION

Forecasts of socio-economic development of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation allow us to determine:

Trends and quantitative parameters of their socio-economic development;

Dynamics of development of regional commodity markets;

Assess the budgetary and financial situation in the coming period;

Consequences of decisions of the Government of the Russian Federation and executive bodies of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation on the processes of economic and social development of regions.

The regional forecast is developed according to certain indicators (cost and volume indicators, prices) taking into account the coordination of scenario conditions for the development of the Russian economy and the economy of the constituent entity of the Russian Federation. When preparing forecast materials, economic bodies of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation are recommended to take into account forecasts for the development of municipalities.

The development of forecasts for the socio-economic development of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation consists of three stages:

1. Development of regional scenarios for the socio-economic development of the relevant territories based on an analysis of the socio-economic situation in the region over the previous period and an assessment of the influence of external and internal factors on development in the coming period (especially the manifestation of the consequences of the global financial crisis and the recovery from its acute phase).

2. Development of a preliminary version of the main indicators of the forecast of socio-economic development of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation, taking into account the scenario conditions for the functioning of the Russian economy and regional development scenarios.

3. Development of updated indicators for the forecast of socio-economic development of a constituent entity of the Russian Federation (taking into account the results of the consideration by the Government of the Russian Federation of the preliminary forecast of the country's development, assessment of the socio-economic situation in the current year, as well as updated macroeconomic forecast estimates).

Forecast report submitted to the Russian Ministry of Economic Development

An analytical report on the forecast of socio-economic development of a constituent entity of the Russian Federation is submitted to the Ministry of Economic Development of Russia along with tabular materials of indicators of the forecast of socio-economic development for the medium term.

The report must contain a justification for the quantitative indicators of the socio-economic development of the region in the forecast period and reflect the possibilities and degree of fulfillment of the goals and objectives set by the executive authorities of the constituent entity of the Russian Federation for the social and economic development of the region in the forecast period.

Approximate structure of the report:

Demographic situation. Dynamics of population size and age-sex structure.

Employment. The state of the labor market, the dynamics of unemployment indicators, assessing the risks of critical situations in the field of employment, in case of a tense situation in cities with single-industry specialization, assess the most important areas for reducing risks.

Standards of living(real disposable income of the population, the share of the population with incomes below the subsistence level, the ratio of the population's income to the subsistence level) and the degree of its differentiation, the dynamics of consumer lending and the population's debt on consumer loans (including mortgages). Level of consumption (dynamics of total trade turnover and volume of paid services per capita). Possible imbalances in the standard of living of the population, measures and ways to prevent them. Social policy, its directions and resource provision.

Development of economic sectors and their impact on social and economic processes in the region. Dynamics of the main indicators of economic development (gross regional product, industrial production, agriculture, investment and financial activity, market of goods and services).

Economic conditions for overcoming the consequences of the global financial crisis, the most important aspects of regional anti-crisis programs, characteristics of existing risks and assessment of probable “growth points” in the economy (main profitable activities and production, the most important investment projects, directions for using investments). Assessment of labor productivity by type of economic activity, employment dynamics, population income, labor market. Prospects for overcoming the consequences of the crisis and transition to economic growth, restoration and development of production (including new types of goods).

Efficiency of using total regional resources to achieve the main forecast indicators.

Characteristics of the specialization of the economy and the possibility of its structural changes in the following areas:

production of consumer goods and services - production of intermediate products (raw materials and semi-finished products);

orientation of the regional economy towards the external or internal market (ratio of foreign trade turnover and GRP volume);

minimizing the risks of the regional economy associated with the consequences of the global financial crisis.

Development of small and medium-sized businesses.

Forecast of the financial condition of the regions, revenue and expenditure parts of regional budgets. The level of balance between income and expenses of a constituent entity of the Russian Federation. Assessing the role of small and medium-sized businesses in reducing the risks of economic downturn, including curbing unemployment. Assessment of government support for small businesses in the region.

Development of interregional connections. The relationship between the production of goods and services in the region and the import of products.